Our cover this week argues that Joe Biden’s instinctive caution could be what makes real
change possible for America. Our election model gives Donald Trump
roughly a 10% chance of winning a second term. Mr Biden is up in the polls by
an average of nine points. He is doing well in battleground states like
Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin. The virus has demonstrated something to a
large number of persuadable voters: that Mr Trump is just not that good at
being president. There is a long time until November. Even so, Mr Trump’s
difficulties have made a Democratic Senate majority possible. Before covid-19
and widespread social unrest, Mr Biden’s candidacy was about restoration: the
idea that he could return America and the world to the prelapsarian days of
2016. Instead he now faces a paradox, which he must not misread. By cleaving to
the centre he might win big enough to get something done.
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