Economia e Capitalismo

quarta-feira, 15 de abril de 2020

El País: El FMI prevé que la deuda pública española escalará hasta el 115% del PIB en 2021, el máximo desde 1902.

https://elpais.com/economia/2020-04-15/la-deuda-publica-espanola-escalara-el-ano-que-viene-hasta-el-115-del-pib-el-nivel-mas-alto-desde-1902.html

terça-feira, 14 de abril de 2020

NYT: The Global Coronavirus Crisis Is Poised to Get Much, Much Worse.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-cases.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Yuval Noah Harari no El País: Na batalha contra o coronavírus, a humanidade carece de líderes.

https://brasil.elpais.com/opiniao/2020-04-13/na-batalha-contra-o-coronavirus-a-humanidade-carece-de-lideres.html

Neste momento de crise, a batalha crucial está sendo travada dentro da própria humanidade. Se a epidemia criar mais desunião e desconfiança entre os seres humanos, o vírus terá obtido sua maior vitória. Quando os humanos brigam, os vírus se duplicam. Em troca, se a epidemia produzir uma maior cooperação mundial, essa será uma vitória não só contra o coronavírus, mas contra todos os futuros agentes patogênicos.

Yuval Noah Harari é historiador e filósofo.

© Yuval Noah Harari 2020. Publicado na TIME.

DW: Número de casos de covid-19 no Brasil é 15 vezes maior que o oficial, diz estudo.

https://www.dw.com/pt-br/n%C3%BAmero-de-casos-de-covid-19-no-brasil-%C3%A9-15-vezes-maior-que-o-oficial-diz-estudo/a-53118226

Paul Krugman: Cronies, cranks and the coronavirus - April 14, 2020 - NYT.

By Paul Krugman

Opinion Columnist

Trying to predict Trump administration actions really is like Kremlinology, updated for the age of social media. There’s clearly no formal policy process; Donald Trump acts on impulse and intuition, often shaped either by whoever he last met or what he last saw on Fox News, making no use of the vast expertise he could call on if he were willing to listen. Those of us on the outside, and from all accounts, even many people within the administration try to infer what’s coming next from tweets and statements by people presumed to be in favor at the moment.

So what does Trumplinology suggest right now? That Trump really, really wants to end the economy’s lockdown very soon. Early Monday Trump tweeted out an assertion that he has the power to overrule state governors who have imposed lockdown orders — which suggests that we may have a constitutional crisis brewing, because as far as anybody knows he has no such power. Meanwhile, in an interview with The New York Times, Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade czar, argued that a weak economy might kill more people than the virus.

The thing is, as far as I can tell epidemiologists are united in the belief that it’s far too soon to be considering any relaxation of social distancing. The lockdowns across America do seem to have flattened the curve, allowing us to avoid — just — completely overwhelming the health care system. New cases may have peaked. But you don’t want to let up until you’re in a position to do so without giving the pandemic a second wave. And we’re nowhere close to that point.

So where’s this coming from? I’ve seen some people portray it as a conflict between epidemiologists and economists, but that’s all wrong. Serious economists know what they don’t know — they recognize and respect experts from other disciplines. A survey of economists found almost unanimous support for “tolerating a very large contraction in economic activity until the spread of infections has dropped significantly.”

No, this push to reopen is coming not from economists but from cranks and cronies. That is, it’s coming on one side from people who may describe themselves as economists but whom the professionals consider cranks — people like Navarro or Stephen Moore, who Trump tried unsuccessfully to appoint to the Federal Reserve Board. And on the other, it’s coming from business types with close ties to Trump who suffer from billionaire’s disease — the tendency to assume that just because you’re rich you’re also smarter than anyone else, even in areas like epidemiology (or, dare I say it, macroeconomics) that require a great deal of technical expertise.

And Trump, of course, who was planning to run on the strength of the economy, desperately wants to wish the coronavirus away.

The reality is that we shouldn’t consider opening the economy until we have both reduced infections dramatically and vastly increased testing, so we can crack down quickly on any potential re-emergence.

The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression.

https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/

DW: O Banco Central vai usar dinheiro do contribuinte para comprar "títulos podres"?

https://www.dw.com/pt-br/o-banco-central-vai-usar-dinheiro-do-contribuinte-para-comprar-t%C3%ADtulos-podres/a-53101745

Estadão: Lições de Winston Churchill para líderes globais em tempos de crise.

https://cultura.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,licoes-de-winston-churchill-para-lideres-globais-em-tempos-de-crise,70003269705

Era 1945. A segunda grande guerra havia acabado. Havia acabado! E esse foi o sinal para uma explosão de alegria em todo mundo. O dever de deter o inimigo maior havia sido concluído com um desfecho pouco provável cinco anos antes, quando poucos se colocaram à frente de Hitler. Um desses homens era Winston Churchill. Naquele momento de vitória, se dirigindo à nação que havia sofrido o impensável, o primeiro-ministro surpreendeu. Como era habitual. “Gostaria de poder dizer-lhes esta noite que toda a nossa labuta e todos os nossos problemas estão terminados.” Não estavam, como a maioria testemunharia pelas décadas seguintes.

segunda-feira, 13 de abril de 2020

UOL: Dólar sobe após quatro quedas e fecha a R$ 5,186; Bolsa avança 1,5%.

https://economia.uol.com.br/cotacoes/noticias/redacao/2020/04/13/fechamento-dolar-bolsa.htm

Coronavírus: Covid-19 é dez vezes mais letal que H1N1, diz OMS.

https://veja.abril.com.br/saude/covid-letalidade-h1n1/

Washington’s hysterical COVID-19 claims will fail.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1185512.shtml

Russian alarm on imported infection risk: Global Times editorial.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1185509.shtml

China and Russia are comprehensive strategic partners of coordination for a new era. They should have enough political will and resources to coordinate supporting Russia's anti-epidemic fight and helping the Chinese people in Russia. China and Russia should help and understand each other, and jointly defeating a vicious enemy such as the COVID-19 as they build a high-level strategic relationship.

Queda do PIB será da ordem de 6% em 2020, segundo economista e ex-ministro da Fazenda Antônio Delfim Netto
A renda por pessoa vai cair cerca de 7%, afirma ex-ministro da Fazenda
Crise causada pelo coronavírus agravou um quadro que já não era positivo, afirma Delfim Netto