Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that
economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year. Job
gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined.
Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has
remained soft. Inflation has increased since earlier this year but is still
below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier
declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based
measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but still are
low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are
little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster
maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with
gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will
expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat
further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the
transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and
the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook
appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation
indicators and global economic and financial developments.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation,
the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to
1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative,
thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a
return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target
range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and
expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment
and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of
information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of
inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and
international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from
2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress
toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will
evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal
funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below
levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path
of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by
incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal
payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities
in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury
securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the
level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the
Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help
maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair;
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley
Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren;
and Daniel K. Tarullo.
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